Meteo Fort-de-France (Martinique) in gennaio

January sits in the dry season, January to March, which is also the expensive one. Regulars describe the rain rather than denying it: quick bursts of five or ten minutes, more often at night than by day, and a full day of rain rare enough to be remembered. That is exactly our row - 34.7mm spread over 14.6 precipitation days is under two and a half millimetres each. They add a geography to it: through these months the rain falls more on the interior than the coasts, and it can be pouring in one part of the island while another is bone dry. Days run to 28.4C with an easterly breeze our row measures at 24.3 kph. The record: 22.3C nights, 10.5 hours of sun and a 26.9C sea.

February is carnival, and in Martinique that is not a sideshow - most of it happens in downtown Fort-de-France, and the forum's practical warning is about supplies rather than weather, because the shops largely close during it and groceries become hard to find. The set piece people name is Bet a Fe, the night parade of lights, costumes and music that starts around seven in the evening. The weather underneath is dry-season Caribbean, and our row shows its shape: 15.3 precipitation days carrying only 44.5mm between them, which is passing showers rather than wet days, under a steady 22 kph trade wind. The record: 26.7C days that feel like 29C, 23.9C nights, 10.7 hours of sun and a 26.4C sea.

Forum posters describe September as roughly a coin flip day to day - about half the days perfectly nice and sunny, the other half bringing wind systems, cloud and higher winds. When rain falls, posters describe it as widely scattered and often brief, sometimes just a few minutes to an hour, with one part of the island seeing rain while another half a mile away stays bright and sunny. Posters are direct about the real hurricane risk: September sits at the peak of the season, with roughly one in every two to three years bringing an actual damaging storm, alongside a general chance of a day or two of unsettled weather from a passing system most years. Posters generally frame September as a viable, lower-price option for anyone willing to accept that real risk.

Martinique's forum describes year-round weather as plenty of sunshine with occasional showers, roughly 25-31°C, and Fort-de-France on the drier southern half of the island compared to the wetter north. Regulars point to the dry-season months around March as generally reliable, with rain a real possibility on any given day but rarely enough to derail a trip.