Het weer in Labuan Bajo (Komodo) in mei

Regulars are specific this counts as early dry season here, some green still lingering from the rains but the landscape visibly starting to dry out, timing that also lands just before the June-to-September peak season with its thicker crowds. Our row backs that hot, genuinely wet read, 29C reading as a scorching 35C, over 25.3C nights feeling 30C, with a substantial 95.3mm of rain across 12.1 days and humidity at 80 percent. Regulars are consistent clear water and normally clear skies are the typical experience this month, dry conditions and fewer crowds the two real advantages over the following peak stretch. This remains one of the better windows for the Komodo boat trips before high season fills up the harbor. The sea sits at a bath-warm 29.6C. The record: 10.6 hours of sun, a 10 kph wind and AQI 37.

Regulars call this deep dry season, offering the same flat seas, clear skies and 25-30 metre dive visibility as the more crowded August just before, but with noticeably fewer boats and lower prices. Our row backs the dry read, 74.7mm of rain across 9.4 days, alongside real heat, 29.2C reading as a hot 35C at 76.6 percent humidity, over 24.5C nights. Regulars note late in the month afternoon clouds start to build as the season turns, though meaningful rain rarely arrives before mid-October, so this stays a safe dry-season bet through its full length. The sea holds a warm 28.1C. The record: 11.3 hours of sun, a 9.7 kph wind and AQI 77.

Asked whether January ruins a Komodo trip, regulars say no - the wind comes from the west this month and the boats still go - and their trip reports range from calm water with a couple of brief showers to solid downpours. Our row explains the spread rather than settling it: 390.9mm across 28.4 days, so rain falls on nearly every day of the month, but a tropical day that rains is not a day of rain. Heat is unbroken, 27.9C reading as 34C at 88 percent humidity over 24.8C nights, with a 28.1C sea. The operator matters more than the month here; the same thread is full of advice to pick carefully. The record: 9.1 hours of sun and AQI 53.

June opens the stretch regulars call the best weather here - June to August, not too hot, with cool air coming up off the Australian winter - and our row is easier than July's: 28.5C, 68.5mm across 7.7 precipitation days, a 29C sea and almost no wind. On the mantas at Manta Point they do not agree with each other. Some put the reliable months at December to March; others say the rays thin out from about July and are back around October. What both versions imply is the same thing: June is the better half of the dry season for seeing them, and July is when the odds start dropping. Dive shops in town arrange the trip. The record: 24.7C nights reading as 29C, humidity 79 percent, 10.4 hours of sun and AQI 50.

July is the dry season and our row shows it plainly: 33.9mm across 4.8 precipitation days, a 28.8C sea and barely any wind. It is also, by the rangers' own account, the hardest stretch for the two things people come for. June to August is the Komodo dragons' breeding season, so you may see few or none, and the mantas are mainly around from December to March. Plenty of July visitors still report dragons and rays; the point is that neither is a given now the way the weather is. The other warning regulars repeat concerns boats rather than animals - photographs in a tour listing often do not match the vessel that turns up, so check the operator. Heat is real at 28.3C over 24C, reading as 33C. The record: humidity 76 percent, 10.6 hours of sun and AQI 35.