Het weer in Aitutaki in maart

Regulars are specific this can genuinely swing either way, hot and sunny one stretch, a rain cloud moving straight across the next, following what can be months of near-relentless rain, high humidity and wind through the wider summer season. Our row backs that hot, genuinely wet read, 27.4C reading as a hot 32C, over 25.8C nights feeling 29C, with a substantial 158.9mm of rain across 22.5 days and humidity at 81 percent. Regulars are consistent this low island runs warmer and generally more comfortable than mountainous Rarotonga even with the rain, staying along the south side to catch the southeast breeze the standard local advice for better sleep. The sea sits at a bath-warm 29C. The record: 10.3 hours of sun, a 22.8 kph wind and AQI 32.

Regulars describe a genuinely useful wind pattern to watch: a settled southeasterly shifts toward north or northwest ahead of incoming rain, or freshens from the east as conditions turn windier - a real, checkable signal rather than pure unpredictability. Our row backs a real average wind, 30.7 kph, alongside mild temperatures for the tropics, 25.5C over 24.3C nights, and 80.8mm of rain across 11 days. One visitor's week here swung from gusty winds hitting the island's southern side hardest to calm, sunny days once conditions settled - regulars are clear this swing within a single week is normal rather than exceptional. The lagoon itself, shallow and quick to warm, holds 26.8C. The record: humidity 75 percent, 9.2 hours of sun and AQI 42.

October is the tail of the good run rather than the start of anything. Regulars put the Cook Islands' best stretch at May to October, name June to October as the popular months for less rain, less humidity and lower temperatures, and single out October as the point where the water begins warming again while the month still sits outside the hurricane season. The wind caveat has a date on it: the equinox winds blow through the middle of September, and it is from late September onwards that things settle. On swimming they split by nationality - locals will not get in during September, New Zealanders will, and both prefer October. Our row gives 25C over 23.9C nights and a 26C sea. The record: 109.5mm across 14.6 days, 10.2 hours of sun and a 31.3 kph wind.

July is the dry season in the Cooks and also midwinter, which regulars warn gets cooler than people expect of the tropics - Rarotonga can drop to 19C at night. Aitutaki is the warmer island, and our row bears that out: 23.9C nights against Rarotonga's 18.6C in its own row, with days at 24.9C. The lagoon is shallow, so it heats quickly and stays comfortable at 26.7C. The advice that matters most in winter is which shore: stay on the north-west, where the resorts cluster, because the south and east take the wind and a cold one there makes for a miserable week. Our 31.1 kph is that wind measured across the island. The record: 70.1mm across 10.8 precipitation days, humidity 77 percent, 9.3 hours of sun and AQI 47.

September in Aitutaki is the glorious end of the dry half - low humidity, little rain, clear sunny days in the mid-20s, and a lagoon beginning to warm again. The one thing regulars will not promise is calm. September is windy a lot of the time and very windy some of it, enough to whip sand off the beaches and put a real current through the lagoon, and on a bad day too choppy to snorkel at all. Our row has the wind at 30.7 kph. The other September draw is the humpbacks, with tours leaving Arutanga on the western side and going out through the reef passage. The record: 24.8C days that feel like 26C, 23.7C nights, 11.8 precipitation days carrying 72.4mm and a 25.9C sea.