מזג האוויר בניס באוקטובר

Regulars point out that the Cannes Film Festival and Monaco Grand Prix both land mid-to-late this month specifically because the weather here is normally close to ideal, a real scheduling clue rather than coincidence. Our row backs that warm, still-mild read, 21.2C over 14.6C nights, with 71.3mm of rain across 14.2 days and humidity at 76 percent. Regulars are consistent that a rainy day here and there is genuinely possible, but it's highly unlikely to derail an entire trip, summer-weight clothes for daytime and a light sweater covering most evenings. The sea sits at 18.7C, still on the cool side for a long swim but comfortable for a dip. The record: 12.1 hours of sun, an 11.4 kph wind and AQI 51.

June here is swimming weather without the August crowd: regulars put the sea about 23C by mid-month, which our column matches at 23.2C, and say there are plenty of people in the water and space on the beach. Air runs 25.6C but reads as 29C, because this coast is humid at 77 percent - a warmer-feeling day than the thermometer promises. Nights stay at 19.6C. The one thing to know before packing is that the beaches here are not sand but galets, flat smooth stones about half a palm across; they are easy enough to walk on and beach shoes still earn their place. Rain is 50.2mm across 9.8 days. The record: 13.2 hours of sun and AQI 59.

Regulars name August their least favourite month on this coast and the reasons are all human: French holidays empty the cities onto the shore, so the restaurants, the transport and the traffic all strain, and the prices follow. Their temperature range of 27 to 29C is our row's 28.9C, with extremes recorded near 38C and late August capable of feeling miserable - they advise booking air conditioning. Against that air they call the Mediterranean surprisingly cool, which is a contrast rather than a figure: ours reads 26C. Their recommendation is September, which they say holds the same air and water with a fraction of the crowd. The record: 22.6C nights, 37.5mm across 7.3 days and 12.5 hours of sun.

July in Nice is hot, humid and almost rainless apart from the odd thunderstorm - regulars give an average daily maximum near 29C, our row 28.3C reading as 32C with 5.7 precipitation days. The counter-intuitive bit is the crowd: July is busier than August here, because the locals leave for their own holidays in August, and the crush runs from about the 15th of July, with the Old Town reduced to a slow crawl. The first week of July is effectively the last week of low season. The other thing they tell first-timers is that Nice's beach is stony and shelves steeply, awkward to get out of; Villefranche-sur-Mer along the coast is sand and fine gravel with shallow water. The record: 22.3C nights, 19.8mm of rain, 13.4 hours of sun and a 26.5C sea.